Glad This One Is Over(This column did not appear in The Daily Tribune)

I'm sure his phone has been ringing off the hook since Tuesday night. By now Paul Battles has heard
from state legislators looking to score a few brownie points with the newest state representative, and
has also probably spoken with more than a few former Jeff Lewis backers seeking to mend fences.

All I can say to Paul is be careful. You are one of 236 legislators, almost all of which have more
seniority than you. In coming weeks you'll be buttered up so much the pancakes at IHOP will become
jealous and it will be hard to know who your friends really are.

One of the first decisions facing Paul will be whether or not to actively join the coup planned by State
Rep. David Ralston and his backers who seek to replace Glenn Richardson with Ralston as Speaker
of the House.

In a debate I co-hosted on NewsTalk AM 1270 recently, Paul made statewide news when he said that
he would not vote for Glenn Richardson to be re-elected as Speaker. Paul really has no choice now
but to join the revolution.

Shortly after the November general election, Republican house members will caucus and select their
nominee for Speaker. Democrats will also meet and pick their person. Mathematically it's impossible
for the Democrats to come anywhere close to regaining a majority in the House this year, so
whomever the GOP house members nominate will become Speaker in January.

If Paul throws in with the rebels and they are successful, he'll open a few doors that otherwise would
be 3 or 4 years away. If they are unsuccessful, he won't even be placed on the back of the bus. He'll
be hidden away in the spare tire carrier under the bus.

So far, the two main GOP leaders after Richardson… Rep. Mark Burkhalter and Rep. Jerry Keen are
publicly sticking with Richardson. It's hard to imagine the king being overthrown without the support of
at least one of these two. Just remember it's a long time until November.

Paul also has to walk a tight wire here at home. Rank and file conservative Republicans are not happy
with the election results. As evidenced by the intense questioning Battles faced every time he
appeared at a GOP function, there is general suspicion among the elephant gang that he is not a true
conservative.

While Jeff Lewis championed tax cuts throughout his time in office, Paul has indicated he would
consider additional taxes for transportation. He also stated at a GOP meeting and during our debate
that he would have had trouble voting for HR89, a pro-gun bill that passed the legislature this session
and was signed by Gov. Perdue.

One conservative legislator from a nearby county I spoke with this past week hinted that he hoped
Paul would be redistricted out of his seat after the 2010 census numbers are in. While that was
probably just post election disappointment from a fan and friend of Jeff Lewis, it still underscores the
fact that as a newbie every move Paul makes will be monitored closely.

So if Jeff Lewis was so revered by conservatives, how did he lose? If you'll check my Tribune column
from May 25th (patting myself on the back) I pretty well nailed how all four contested local elections
would play out. The Lewis/Battles election turned out to be the street fight I predicted.

There are only two people who could have possibly taken Jeff out this year. Paul Battles was one and I
won't say who the other is lest he gets election fever too. I stated that to defeat Jeff, his challenger
would have to go negative, and I was actually surprised at how hard Paul and his handlers hit Jeff.

Jeff's weakness? He's too nice of a guy. When he stopped by the radio station to place his advertising
buy back in early May, I warned him that he would have to run this time like he was a challenger and
would have to hit Paul. Jeff was very hesitant. It's just not his style.

There's a rule in politics that an attack or accusation unanswered becomes the truth in 48 hours. Jeff
was slow to respond to Battles' attack ads, instead trusting that voters would reject the negative
campaigning and stick with him.

That caused Jeff's supporters to spend valuable time and effort trying to convince people that Jeff didn't
vote for Speaker Richardson's GREAT Plan and instead told Richardson to his face that he couldn't
support it.

They also tried vainly to explain that while yes the effort to appropriate $10 million for North Metro Tech
was a joint effort among several legislators, it was Jeff who used his influence to move the project from
number 17 on the list of capital outlay projects up to number four… knowing that only the top six
projects would be funded in the budget.

In other words, Jeff's campaign got mired in minutia playing defense instead of being on message.
Lewis needed something to stir up that large mass of Bartow conservatives who are notorious about
sitting out primary elections only to show up in November.

If I were managing Jeff's campaign, I would have recommended direct mail pieces to likely GOP voters
hitting Paul hard on the tax and gun issues. I truly believe this would have generated just enough extra
turnout to cover the 186 votes Jeff lost by.

Meanwhile, one only had to look at the list of people who publicly endorsed Paul to see quite a few
Democrats. With no local races for Democrats to vote for, an analysis of the numbers will reveal that
many Dem's crossed over and pulled a GOP ballot… most voting for Paul.

In closing, Paul's team did a good job of turning out his large natural base of support. Even though it
was a squeaker, Paul will be the new State Representative from District 15 and to the victor goes the
spoils. I wish him well.

As for Jeff, Bartow County has lost a significant amount of clout at the Gold Dome. Though our other
two local State House members, Barry Loudermilk and Tom Graves, have each received high marks
from business leaders and political observers, it still takes longevity to gain the pull Jeff had.

It will also take some time for the wounds from this campaign to heal as quite a few personal
relationships in the community have been strained. No one ever said politics was an easy enterprise,
and I for one am glad this contest is over.

July 20, 2008