Charles Shiflett Column January 22, 2006

The Forecast Is Sonny

They thought they had him in the crosshairs, but they never saw it coming! Oh to have been a fly on
the wall at the campaign headquarters of either Mark Taylor or Cathy Cox last week. I bet some
staffers and consultants were royally chewed out after Sonny Perdue masterfully deflated the
gubernatorial campaigns of both candidates.

To backtrack, Sonny took office in January 2003 with a new Republican majority in the state senate
and Democrats still in control of the house. The economy was faltering in the aftermath of the terror
attacks of 9-11 and tax revenues were way down.

Perdue quickly proved that he had the mettle for the job as he reigned in government spending and
made some tough budget cuts. Though the education establishment had been a deciding factor in
Sonny's upset of King Roy, they bore the brunt of reductions in state funding as he did what he had to
do.

I got to know Sonny while working as communications director for the Georgia GOP. When the
legislature was in session, my duties included sitting in each morning with the Republican state
senators as they held their private strategy meetings. Afterward, I would craft press releases touting
our platform and attacking the Democrats.

From those meetings I could tell Sonny was an even keeled individual… not easily excited, and one to
do his homework. While some senators were busy blowing smoke and trying to grab a little of the
spotlight, Sonny along with GOP leader Eric Johnson methodically worked the plan.

Having been in the senate leadership as a Democrat, it would have been easy for Sonny to become
obsessed with getting revenge on a Democrat power structure that brought the full force of their
strength down on him after he switched to the GOP in 1998. However, he felt that if he did his job and
followed his convictions, then everything would work out in the end… which it did.

The original plan was for Republicans to gain a majority in the state senate in 2000, which would have
given Perdue a base from which to launch a gubernatorial bid in 2002. Though Georgians statewide
collectively cast more votes for Republican senate candidates that November, the Democrat drawn
districts had their intended effect and the Dem's barely held on to their majority.

With a panel of judges crafting the final legislative redistricting maps in April 2002 following a lawsuit,
Republicans sensed that the resulting level playing field would give them the edge in the general
election and a majority in the senate. They were right.

For Sonny, the choice was not difficult. If he ran for governor in 2002 and lost to incumbent Roy
Barnes, he would probably be considered the frontrunner in 2006 when Barnes would be term-limited
out of office. Sonny launched his shoestring campaign and the rest is history.

In all honesty, the first two years of Sonny's tenure were good, but not outstanding as he managed to
pass some meaningful reforms and admirable handled the state budget crisis. In 2004, Republicans
swept to victory as they also gained a sizeable majority in the state house, giving Perdue the means
necessary to begin accomplishing his agenda.

One only need look at opinion polls from the past three years to see that while his negatives were low,
Sonny's overall approval levels were good but soft. Many Georgians responded that they didn't know
enough about Perdue to make an informed decision. However, in 2005 Sonny hit stride and recent poll
numbers have reflected it.

For Democrat gubernatorial wannabees Cox and Taylor, the plan had been to exploit Sonny's
education budget cuts and the recent health insurance premium increases for teachers. Whoever
survived the Democrat primary would need the support of Georgia educators to offset Perdue's rising
poll numbers. Then just like that… the issue was lost.

Cox and Taylor have been extremely quiet in the days since Perdue's State of the State address. In
one bold move Sonny took the wind out of their sails with an overdue pay raise for educators; a freeze
on their health insurance premiums; capital outlay funds for new classrooms; and a few more goodies
to sweeten the pot.

Politics is a rough business and it's impossible to plan for every possibility, but the thing that portends
poorly for the campaigns Cox and Taylor is neither had a response to Perdue's proposals. They should
have easily anticipated his moves, but both rolled over and Sonny took the high ground.

It's a long way to November, but the current legislative session will be geared around raising Perdue's
profile and solidifying his lead over Cox and Taylor, while both pick around the edges. I may be lousy
predicting snow, but I can safely say the forecast for November 7th will be Sonny.