Charles Shiflett Column June 12, 2005

Sticking My Neck Out

I know some of you have always wanted to poke a finger in my face and say, “You are wrong!” If so,
then you may want to clip today's column and place it in a drawer for a decade or two as I stick my
neck out and make some bold predictions.

Either I'll be hailed as the next Nostradamus (Chuckydamus has a nice ring to it), or I'll be ranked right
up there with those who said man would never set foot on the moon.

All kidding aside, there are some very subtle changes taking place in American public opinion that
could have a major impact in the not so distant future. Of course a disease epidemic, economic
collapse, terror attack, or war could dramatically change the world as we know it in short order and
then all my pontificating will be for naught, but changes are in the air.

While playing in the political arena, I've seen how poll numbers can be manipulated to get a specific
message across, so I generally look at polling data with a grain of suspicion. However, over the past
few years some interesting trends have developed, so let's break out a few of these before I take a
stab at what it all portends for our future.

With the exception of the abortion issue, there are many on the political right who believe Americans
in general have thrown in the towel in the fight to uphold traditional Judeo-Christian values. A
Libertarian mindset is gaining traction here… a general belief that as long as you don't directly hurt or
impact my family and me you can do what you want.

Who would have imagined twenty years ago that a large number of American corporations would make
domestic partner benefits available to homosexual partners of their employees? Or that judges would
uphold a supposed right to civil unions and same sex marriage? And gay characters in TV shows and
movies are now commonplace.

Pre-marital sex, shacking up, and divorce are the new norms. Parents allow girls as young as 8 or 10
to dress like hookers and think nothing of it. Compare a junior high yearbook from the 1970's with one
from today. Our children are losing their innocence at a much younger age.

The impact of these trends is that the Christian right will play a diminished role in national politics.
They won't relinquish the political battlefield, but will continue to fight a rearguard action… making
occasional stands, but steadily losing ground as Libertarian social thought expands.

At the other extreme of the political spectrum, those who envision continued growth of domestic
socialism might be in for a rude awakening. Unions continue to represent a shrinking percentage of the
labor force as more Americans see themselves as owners in the greatest experiment of free market
capitalism the world has ever known.

Social Security and guaranteed pensions mean less to today's workers as they embrace IRA's,
401k's, rental properties, and other individually owned investments. We're moving toward what
President Bush and his advisors call an “ownership society”.

There may be a few steps backwards as we struggle with healthcare access and affordability issues,
but overall look for the social safety net to be tightened as the nation begins to expect those who can
to take care of themselves.

The pressure to reform the tax code and Social Security will grow, as will a renewed impetus to reduce
the national deficit. The ability of the federal government to use the tax code as a hammer to force
specific social behavior will be lessened. As growing numbers of minorities reach the middle and upper
classes, our nation's monolithic voting blocks will quickly break down.

Here's where it gets interesting… America's election laws are structured to make it virtually impossible
for third parties to compete against the two major political parties, so what happens to our big two?
While they may pull off an occasional victory, I firmly believe the Democrat Party will soon be
relegated to permanent minority status.

The nation will then enter a period where a Republican Party that is fiscally conservative but more
Libertarian minded on social issues will gain the center and hold it for an extended time. During that
time Democrats will compete against other third parties and newcomers in a battle to see which can
garner enough support to emerge and challenge the GOP.

Some conservative Republicans have already left the party and more will continue to leave home for
the Constitution and Libertarian Parties, while many moderate Democrats are so turned off by their
party's incessant negativity and lack of vision that they're begrudgingly voting Republican.

These trends may play out fairly quickly or it may take two or three decades before my scenario
comes to fruition, but the movement in public opinion is real. To those of you who think I'm off my
rocker, just remember our nation has survived several major political cycles since its inception… just
ask the Whigs. Who are the Whigs, you ask?