Charles Shiflett Column April 17, 2005

Legislative Session Exposes Political Fault Lines

The first year of a transition in political power can be a dangerous time. The legislative session that
just ended was the first in over 130 years during which Republicans controlled both branches of the
Georgia legislature and the governor's office.

The potential political landmines were many, but hats off to new House Speaker Glenn Richardson for
keeping things under control. A fairly broad legislative agenda was put forward with numerous
successes. A close read between the lines however reveals a few political fault lines that could shake
things up a bit down the road.

These fissures expose splits within the Democrat Party, within the Republican Party, between the
races, and pits rural interests against urban ones. The depth of these potential flashpoints is yet to be
determined, but Georgia's political landscape could be significantly altered.

The most fragile coalition is that between black Democrats and white Democrats. Almost every
member of the black caucus can be considered a liberal, while white Democrat legislators register
about 50% liberal. Though dwindling in number, rural moderate to conservative white male Democrat
legislators have maintained an uneasy alliance with their liberal party mates, but those days appear
numbered.

In politics, compromise is the name of the game. You fight for what you believe in, but at the end of
the day you cut the best deals you can and declare victory. It's becoming much harder for these rural
whites to cut deals with their liberal party members without endangering their own reelection bids back
home.

Rural voters in Georgia have much more in common ideologically with the GOP, yet have continued to
reelect some of their long serving Democrats out of a sense of tradition and loyalty. If these rural
Democrat legislators allow themselves to get too close to the liberal wing of their party, those rural
foundations may soon crumble.

If the Democrat Party loses it's rural base, the party will quickly become one completely dominated by
minorities with a few urban whites, but almost all of a liberal persuasion. With no viable third parties in
Georgia, the Republican Party will hold the reins of power for many years. Having our two main
political parties divided along racial lines is not healthy.

If things go as planned, Georgians will be nudged a little further down that road of political segregation
August 6th when slogan master Jesse Jackson and the Rainbow/Push Coalition hold a march in
Atlanta to protest Georgia's plan to require voters to show a picture ID when they vote.

We already show ID when buying tobacco, alcoholic beverages, or cashing a check. Most polls
numbers I've seen show that an overwhelming majority of whites support a requirement to show a
photo ID when voting, while most black legislators and activists strongly oppose the measure.

Whites see it as a means of preventing voter fraud. Blacks see it as a means of discouraging
minorities from voting. In all my years of observing our state legislature, I've never seen the black
caucus throw such a collective temper tantrum as it did over this issue.

If white Democrats stand with the black caucus, they will have committed political suicide with their
constituents. If they fail to support the black caucus, they won't be able to count on black legislators
to share power with them under the Gold Dome. Either way they lose.

Republicans have their own internal divides, though they aren't as dangerous to their political survival
as those facing the Democrats. On a number of issues this year, true GOP conservatives butted
heads with those willing to increase the scope and size of government.

There's also a sizeable contingent of libertarian leaning elephant boys who showed their opposition to
legislation they considered intrusive, such as the smoking ban. Governor Perdue himself is struggling
with whether to sign or veto this piece of legislation.

The only hope Democrats have of slowing the GOP juggernaut is by exploiting issues that could divide
rural and suburban Republicans. It's a long shot, but big guy Mark Taylor is pinning his political future
on this strategy. I personally don't see Taylor's plan succeeding, but don't worry about Mark. Seems
snake oil salesmen can always find a job.

One potential lightning rod for the GOP next year may be the candidacy of Ralph Reed for the
Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. There are a lot of voters on both sides of the aisle who
don't trust Reed. If he becomes an issue, it's possible some of the negatives could rub off on Sonny
Perdue.

I batted 1000 on my election predictions last year and feel confident that Republicans will hold their
seats in the legislature, will increase their number of statewide office holders, and possibly pick up one
more congressional seat next year.

Of course it's a long haul to November 2006 and a lot can happen between now and then. Surging oil
prices, the appearance of inflation, or some unforeseen international conflict could rock the economy
and voters could take a “throw the bums out” approach. Then again, some of the political fault lines
above could become extremely active… then all bets are off. Get those picture ID's ready.