Charles Shiflett Column October 3, 2004

Georgia's Masquerade Party

Georgia will be holding an election November 2nd, but many incumbent Democrats running for
reelection to the state legislature will be dressed for a masquerade ball instead. Seems that
campaigning as a Democrat, especially in north Georgia or rural south Georgia, could be detrimental
to these candidate's political health.

Old timers like state representative Buddy Childers or retiring state senator Nathan Dean had a time
tested two-step formula for victory. First remind voters that Democrats controlled the governor's office
and both chambers of the legislature, and that a Republican couldn't get anything done. Secondly,
take credit for everything and make the voters believe none of it could have been accomplished without
them being in the legislature.

It was a pretty good racket until 2002, but with voters putting a Republican in the governor's office and
a GOP majority in the state senate, that first argument doesn't wash any more. Democrats are the
ones who now can't do anything legislatively. Also fiscal constraint and threadbare state coffers have
emptied Georgia's notorious pork barrel. Lately I haven't noticed as many pictures in the paper of these
incumbents holding checks while claiming they single handedly procured funding to pave some road in
Bartow County.

Finally, Democrats have a presidential nominee who will lose big in Georgia. Instead of having
coattails, John F. Kerry is political quicksand outside of the state's urban areas. It's been hilarious to
watch these rural white Democrat legislators campaign this year. To borrow a line from an old Monty
Python movie… “Run away!”

When speaking to hardcore Democrats, these incumbents tote the party line and speak highly of
Kerry. However, when they are out among the general public it's a different story. I've read countless
reports of candidates portraying themselves as “conservative Zell Miller Democrats”. They have no core
beliefs and will say or do whatever it takes to maintain their power, but the gig may be up.

Georgia's former Democrat Lt. Gov. Pierre Howard along with former Republican state Rep. Matt
Towery together operate Insider Advantage. This is a non-partisan firm specializing in analysis of
government and politics in the southeastern U.S. with a focus on Georgia and Florida. They have an
excellent track record.

Insider Advantage recently conducted an in-depth examination of all of the contested races for seats in
the state legislature, and the picture produced sent chills down the spines of the state's Democrat
leadership. According to the folks at Insider, the GOP will increase its strength in the Georgia state
senate, garnering a sizeable 34 to 22 majority.

The bigger and more devastating news for Georgia Democrats is that their current significant majority
in the state house will evaporate. The analysis projects that after the election, Democrats will hold just
90 seats, Republicans 89 seats, and there will be one independent. If the GOP picks up at least 86
seats, most pundits see somewhere between four and eight Democrats switching parties - putting the
house under Republican control.

Until now, state legislators in Georgia have been like hired guns. They may a little a little rough around
the edges, but doggone it they're ours and they'll go to Atlanta and fight for us. That's not the case
anymore. Georgians today are looking for intelligent, hard working, sensible representatives who will
make informed decisions without the circus-like “look what I've done for you” shenanigans.

The bottom line is that communities investing in their current Democrat legislators won't be getting any
dividends in return.

Even if your guy or gal manages to get reelected, with Republicans in control of the house there will be
no Democrat committee chairs. Your Democrat legislator will be a toothless tiger.

No sports team keeps the same players forever. They cut personnel, sign new players, and make
trades in order to stay competitive. Georgia politics has changed and to compete many communities
need to take the same approach with their aging Democrat legislators.

The masquerade ball ends November 2nd and these newly self-proclaimed “Zell Miller Democrats”
won't resemble Zell very much when the masks come off. Thankfully, most won't be returning to the
legislature either.