The Backroom Report - Latest Commentary And Analysis From Chuck Shiflett

The Great NW Georgia Newspaper War - A long, long time ago... back in March 2009, I predicted on my radio Backroom Report that in coming months I expected to see the Rome News Tribune make a move into Bartow County against our hometown Cartersville Daily Tribune. It's taken a little longer than anticipated, but this week the war started.

In the spring of 2009 the Rome newspaper took over home delivery of the AJC in Bartow County. This meant their drivers would be delivering papers in every nook and cranny of Cartersville and surrounding areas of Bartow. It only made sense that if they were delivering here anyway they might as well deliver their own newspaper at the same time.

The Rome News Tribune already covers some north Bartow County news (Adairsville & Kingston area) and includes Cartersville and Bartow high schools in their sports coverage. So with just a little extra effort they could increase their Bartow news coverage to include the Cartersville area.

This past Friday tucked inside my AJC was the Friday edition of the Rome News Tribune, and sadly I must say the news coverage put the Cartersville paper to shame. One of the biggest local events this past week was the Thursday evening public forum held in Cartersville by the Georgia DOT where they presented the 2011-2014 area transportation plan, which included the controversial 411 Connector. By late Thursday evening Rome already had an in-depth story of the meeting on their website. The Friday morning Rome paper had the article front page. The Cartersville paper? Their coverage consisted of a small picture from the event with no story. Ouch!

Things got worse on Saturday... that is the only day of the week that Cartersville doesn't go to print. Front page in the Rome paper was a story about an Adairsville woman being charged in a fatal wreck, plus another front pager about Cartersville businessman and former mayoral candidate Greg Cordell being apprehended by federal marshals in relation to a fraud case against him. Inside on 5A was an article about a Bartow County man being deported back to Guatemala. And then in the sports section of the Rome paper were stories about the Cartersville and Adairsville high school football games along with complete NW GA coverage.

(This morning in the Sunday edition of the Cartersville paper there was still no story about the Georgia DOT public hearing, nor one of the Adairsville woman charged in the fatal wreck.)

Folks have complained for a long time about the poor quality of the Cartersville Daily Tribune. No investigative reporting, nothing controversial, and no urgency. Other than a little run of the mill news and the local crime blotter, the paper is mainly fluff... notices of church and community events, obituaries, Dear Abby, and pictures of local senior groups eating out. While the Rome paper doesn't rise to the level of a true investigative journalistic endeavor, they do more local real news stories and the articles are more in-depth. Plus they break local news live on their website almost around the clock including car accidents and house fires.

The 2010 census will show the populations of Bartow and Floyd Counties as being virtually identical, yet Bartow residents are shortchanged when it comes to local media. While the Rome News Tribune is a superior publication to the Cartersville paper, it's even worse on the radio side.

Floyd County is home to nine radio stations... 5 FM's = WTSH South 107, WSRM Lite 93.5, WQTU Q102, WGPB 98 FM Georgia Public Broadcasting, WATG 95.7 The Ridge (office in Rome, transmitter in Chattooga County). And 4 AM's = WROM 710, WGJK 1360, WLAQ 1410, WRGA 1470.

Bartow County is home to just two radio outlets... WCCV 91.7 FM that is a religious non-profit, and WBHF 1450 AM that only remains on the air because it receives funding from its owner, the non-profit Anverse foundation.

So with identical populations, why the disparity? One major contributing factor is that Floyd County businesses are willing to spend the advertising dollars necessary to not only promote their firms, but to also support local media on behalf of their clients and customers. The larger businesses especially see their media expenditures as a quality of life investment for Floyd County residents.

Unless Bartow County's civic and business leaders make a financial commitment to support local media, we may soon be relegated to getting our print news and radio broadcasts out of Atlanta and Rome� and that means we all lose. Smaller local businesses will have nowhere they can affordably and effectively advertise; local politicians won't be held accountable; local high schools will get only sporadic coverage of their sporting events; and the list goes on.

One only has to look at all of the accomplishments Floyd County has racked up over the past few years such as the recent upgrading of Barron Stadium and the landing of a national collegiate football championship game, or the building of State Mutual Field and grabbing the Rome Braves franchise. Now Floyd leaders are actively putting together plans for what could be the largest tennis center in the Southeastern United States. These facilities pay off handsomely in increased business for Rome area merchants and increased tax revenues for Floyd County and the City of Rome.

Without the generosity of John Oscher and his charitable organizations in constructing the Booth Western Art Museum and the Tellus Science Museum, Bartow County would be hard pressed to find many recent accomplishments. We have so many natural advantages... I-75, Lake Allatoona, the Etowah River, closer proximity to Atlanta, the Etowah Indian Mounds, numerous historical sites, and gorgeous countryside. Now we just need some forward-looking leaders who are willing to dream big and rally the community to do more. Otherwise Bartow County will become just a collection of fragmented housing developments whose residents consider themselves part of Atlanta's suburbs with no unique identity. Many local folks already feel that way. 8-29-10
WSB On The Skids Or End Of AM Radio? The answer is both! Having been a small market AM station owner, I've seen this coming for several years. Technological advances such as smart phones and satellite radio have only hastened the eventual death of AM radio. The sound quality of AM is inferior... especially for music, and there is so much electrical interference now from cell towers, high voltage power lines, etc. that listening to AM is almost impossible in some areas.

Another downside is AM signals are difficult to pick up inside of office buildings and other commercial structures where many spend a large percentage of their day. Then you have the issue of most AM stations having to drop to low power levels at night... effectively making it impossible to generate any revenues from evening and overnight time slots, especially in this weak economy.

Thirty-five years ago talk radio saved the AM band, but all across the nation news/talk stations are now making the switch to FM. It's no surprise the good folks at Cox would put Atlanta's legacy station, WSB AM 750, on it's underperforming 95.5 FM frequency. However, moving WSB to FM will not magically return the station to its halcyon days atop the Atlanta Arbitron ratings. (For the foreseeable future WSB will simulcast on AM & FM)

I've been a fairly regular listener of WSB AM 750 for most of my 50 years on this planet and that highlights the problem. WSB's listening audience continues to get older... and as the older listeners pass not enough younger listeners are taking their places. It appears WSB management believes the problems with AM as highlighted above are the major factor preventing the younger crowd from joining the AM 750 family. While this is a contributing reason, there's much more at play here. If WSB wants to regain its lost glory, there are several steps they should consider:

(1) It's not the 1970's anymore! WSB takes itself too seriously... the station's imaging and promos are as dry as shoe leather. Listeners today want humor and creativity regardless of format. The station doesn't have to go overboard, that would be out of character... but let's liven it up a little guys.

(2) The DVR has changed everything. We've had DVR's in our home for several years and my wife and I are at the point that we will no longer tolerate commercials. We record everything we watch and zip past all the ads... local and national. Even on live broadcasts like news or college football I'll start the DVR and read while it's paused until enough time has elapsed that I'll be able to avoid all the advertisements.

If I listen to music it's XM/Sirius. I haven't listened to commercial music radio (AM or FM) in many years. Talk radio is my primary listening style, but unfortunately the format is very structured time wise. Though many of my favorite talk shows are also on satellite radio, the long breaks are still there and instead of commercials they're filled with endless promos. So I now find myself increasingly turning off the radio for the length of the commercial break, then tuning back in.

WSB seems to pack more commercials into 60 minutes than any station I know. I understand that Boortz, Clark Howard, and Hannity are syndicated and thus you have mandatory national breaks and local breaks back to back, but the negative impact could be minimized with a little creativity. Instead of playing 4 or 5 minutes of spots without interruption and then plugging in Kirk Mellish's weather tease at the end, put his weather in the middle of the break... after the end of the national spots and before the local spots.

It would also make sense to shorten these tediously long breaks by reducing the local avails by 60 seconds and plugging in some complimentary short segments like a Wall Street report or sports update.

Finally, station management does have complete control over the top and bottom of the hour newsbreaks. Increase the news by 30 to 60 seconds and reduce the commercial inventory. I've listened to some bottom of the hour news segments with 90 seconds of news followed by 4 minutes of commercials and then traffic and weather. Or at least break the commercial set in half by plugging traffic in the middle and keeping weather at the end.

(3) Scale back Belinda. Boortz sidekick Belinda Skelton is a sweetheart and is a great fit for Neal's show, but she does have one of those voices that can be annoying to listen to. The sales weasels at WSB have oversold Belinda as a voiceover talent and she appears in almost every commercial break voicing spots for a large number of different advertisers. I've reached the point that if she voices a commercial I refuse to shop at that company... it's that irritating.

(4) Scott Slade. You'll find no better morning news show host than Scott anywhere in the nation, but I personally feel that station management crosses the line by using Scott in commercials. News people should avoid any situation that would cause readers or listeners to sense possible bias in their reporting. Scott's credibility and that of the station is damaged by the use of him in paid commercials. You don't see WSB-TV's John Pruitt or Monica Pearson pushing cars or pest control firms.

Will the move to FM allow WSB AM 750 to survive? Absolutely. The bigger question is that in these days of changing listening tastes and a myriad of ways to entertain ourselves, will WSB management make the fundamental structural changes needed to once again flourish as Atlanta's legacy station? 8-16-10

Don't Blame Sarah - The Sarah Palin bashers are writing her political obituary due to Karen Handel's loss in the Georgia GOP runoff August 10th. They couldn't be more wrong. Handel was always the weakest of the big four in the GOP Primary. She didn't inspire confidence that she was ready to lead, and this was reflected in her poor fundraising. Without Palin's endorsement Handel would have finished 3rd or 4th in the Primary and wouldn't have even been in the runoff. Handel's problem? While there are numerous factors that played into her defeat, two are paramount.

(1) Handel's chief strategist Dan McLagan. His abrasive slash and burn style caused Karen to come across as mean spirited and turned off many potential Handel voters... some of whom stayed home Tuesday as a result. McLagan also made enemies out of most of the state legislature, and the reps and senators responded by a big last minute push to get the vote out for Deal. McLagan is gaining quite the reputation for destroying the careers of his female political clients.

(2) A look at a map of the counties carried by Handel shows she ran strong in and around Georgia's major cities such as Albany, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah, and of course Atlanta. Rural Georgia along with Nathan Deal's home territory in the northern section of the state pushed Deal over the top. Some will say that the rural areas just weren't ready for a woman governor, but I disagree. Sarah Palin is very popular in these areas of the state. No, rural Georgia tends to give more weight to moral issues and the controversy over Handel's involvement with the gay Log Cabin Republican group along with questions over her abortion stance and funding of Planned Parenthood while she was chair of he Fulton County Commission did her in.

While some will say Handel has a bright political career ahead of her, I'm not so sure. Redistricting or the retirement of a sitting congressman might open the door for a congressional bid if she would even want it, but I just don't see her making her way back into state government. 8-11-10

Some Guys Named Buddy Are Just Buddy: It's amazing what some folks will do at election time. Just before the July 20 Primary, an advertisement ran in the Rome News Tribune in which former Democrat State Representative Buddy Childers stated, "I am encouraging you to go to the polls on July 20th and vote like I do... for Jeff Knight".

A little background... Childers was defeated by Republican Barry Loudermilk in 2004. Jeff Knight and Loudermilk were both seeking the GOP nomination this year for State Senate district 52 to replace Preston Smith who ran for Attorney General. No surprise that Loudermilk won a resounding victory.

Now back to our Buddy... according to data from the Elections Division of the Georgia Secretary of State's office, Mr. Childers voted in the Democrat Primary. In order to vote for Jeff Knight, Childers would have had to vote in the Republican Primary. But it gets worse. Childers took advantage of early voting and had already cast his Democrat ballot before the newspaper ad ever ran. Far too many Democrats will do or say almost anything and still feel no guilt or shame. 8-11-10

Move Over South Carolina, Georgia Voters Got Game! Things be gettin' crazy 'round the ol' Peach State with days to go until Primary Election Day. I've received numerous e-mails and calls this week from folks asking whom I'm voting for next Tuesday on the GOP ticket and why, so I'm happy to oblige.

Attorney General: Preston Smith... Why? Preston has served in the State Senate for 8 years after knocking off longtime incumbent Democrat Richard Marable in 2002. Like the other two candidates Preston is an attorney, but what has impressed me the most is the backbone he displayed when he stood up to his own GOP State Senate leaders when they attempted to strong arm him into voting for a tax increase he and his constituents were opposed to. I fully believe Preston has the courage to fight the federal government on issues like ObamaCare, illegal immigration, and voter identification. Max Wood is also a credible pick, but former Cobb Commissioner Sam Olens is unacceptable. A former Democrat Party officer, Olens campaigned for Bill Clinton. Olens' debate answers have left me with real concern that he will be a "go along to get along" kind of attorney general who won't rock the boat. No surprise that he has a lot of Democrat supporters.

Insurance Commissioner: Gerry Purcell... Why? Gerry approaches the job of insurance commissioner from a businessperson's perspective. He is all about competition and efficiency, and seems to have a very good grasp on the rapidly changing insurance industry. There are other good candidates among the eight GOP contenders such as Maria Sheffield and Seth Harp, but Purcell gets my vote.

State School Superintendent: John Barge... Why? Sonny Perdue's Democrat roots peek out from under his bald head from time to time, especially with his wholehearted embrace of federal intrusion into our state education system. When incumbent superintendent Kathy Cox decided to resign from office and not seek reelection after qualifying for office, Sonny was in a bind and he was willing to make a deal. Both John Barge and his GOP opponent Richard Woods are opposed to Sonny's "let the Feds do it" plans, so Perdue appointed state school board member Brad Bryant to finish Cox's term, and Team Sonny went to work trying to garner enough signatures to get Bryant placed on the ballot as an independent. Thankfully that effort failed. Both Barge and Woods are educators and good men, but Barge has a great conservative ideology and the enthusiasm to get things done. Barge gets the edge.

Secretary Of State: Doug MacGinnitie... Why? When Karen Handel resigned her position as Secretary of State to run for governor, Sonny Perdue could have appointed a caretaker to finish Handel's term and let the voters pick the successor between announced candidates Brian Kemp and Doug MacGinnitie. Instead, he tried to tilt the playing field in Kemp's favor by appointing him to replace Handel. Kemp is part of Team Perdue and I'm getting tired of ol' Sonny boy trying to stack state government with his cronies so he can maintain influence after he's gone at the end of this year. Kemp has a checkered past as a candidate for other offices and just seems a little unstable and possibly in over his head with this Secretary of State gig. MacGinnitie is not the perfect candidate, but a good one. He has the skill set needed to perform the job admirably.

Commissioner Of Agriculture: Gary Black... Why? Both Black and his opponent Darwin Carter are agriculture guys and have the experience to do the job. This one comes down to age... Black is 51, while Carter is 70. We need someone who can serve in this office for many years and provide continuity for the ag community. No offense to Carter, but you're just too old dude.

Public Service Commissioner, Post 2: Jeff May... Why? Opponent Joey Brush is a former state legislator who was considered a loose cannon with an oversized ego. Scratch Brush. Opponent Tim Echols was part of gubernatorial candidate John Oxendine's campaign team before jumping onto this race. Echols has recently engaged is some sleazy politikin' involving a non-profit youth group that he leases to his own campaign to knock doors for him. No time for all the details, but trust me when I say it is ethically challenged. John Douglas is a state senator some feel is a little too close to the utility companies he would regulate as a PSC member. That leaves Jeff May, who seems willing to stand up for the regular folks.

Labor Commissioner: Tossup... Why? Melvin Everson is a minister and Mark Butler is a state representative and real estate appraiser. Both are good conservative guys. The biggest difference is that Everson is black and Butler is white. We all know the GOP cannot long survive current demographic trends unless some people of other races join in. Some see electing Everson as a step in that direction.

Governor: Eric Johnson... Why? Almost every night another Georgia media outlet unloads a story implicating John Oxendine in yet another ethics scandal. If you're reading this you keep up with politics enough to weed out the attacks that are serious from the ones that are fluff. However, the average voter is hearing "John Oxendine bad" night after night and his poll numbers are now dropping faster than Lindsey Lohan's undies in the remake of Deep Throat she is starring in (seriously). Oxendine has managed to lead the pack until now because of his ability to raise money and his high name ID from having served as Insurance Commissioner for almost 16 years. Now that the other candidates are spending money on television, radio, and direct mail... voters are starting to take a second look and they don't like what they see in The Ox.

If I had to pick only one reason to vote against Karen Handel, it's because she's Sonny Perdue's pick and his brain trust is running her campaign. However there are numerous reasons such as this whole gay Log Cabin Republicans fiasco. The real problem isn't that she may have paid to join that organization and promised them she would work to add gay domestic partner benefits for Fulton County employees. No the problem is that she lied, and lied, and lied about it all. Every time a new piece of proof was uncovered implicating Handel, she would release yet another version of the truth. Even after a copy of the actual check she reportedly used to pay her $75 Log Cabin Republican dues surfaced (hat tip to Bill Simon at Political Vine), Handel continued to squirm and twist. Handel's fundraising has been anemic compared to Oxendine, Deal and Johnson, and I have to be concerned that she could win in November against the Democrats.

In all honesty, former congressman Nathan Deal would probably be an effective governor. However, like Oxendine, Deal has some serious ethics baggage clinging to him like a leg iron. Deal would be my second place pick.

I had an opportunity to work closely with Eric Johnson back in 2000 when I served as Communications Director of the state GOP. Johnson was the Republican state senate leader at that time. I can tell you Eric is a true conservative and a sharp guy. He knows state government inside out and I fully believe if elected he will turn Georgia into a lean, efficient machine that will help bring badly needed jobs here. After the GOP gained a majority in the state senate in 2002, former Democrat Lt. Governor Mark Taylor's powers were stripped away and given to then senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson. Johnson ran a tight ship in the senate, which is no easy task when your team has just gained the majority for the first time since Reconstruction.

Johnson knows business and what it takes to create jobs. He has also been a leader in creating competition in Georgia's education system, and our children are already benefiting from some of the measures he pushed through. Johnson has generally been the number two fundraiser after Oxendine and is starting to move up in the polls. It's still open as to whether he can peak in time to make it into the runoff, but the GOP electorate is very fluid right now.

No offense to Jeff "Jekyll Island" Chapman, Ray "She's Only Sixteen" McBerry, and Otis "Wal-Mart" Putnam, but none of these guys have a chance and I'm out of time.

OK folks, that my picks and my reasoning. I know some of you will disagree and that's fine. We're all stronger for having been part of the election process. 7-14-10
Whether Race Or Gender, It's Still Wrong: The GOP gubernatorial campaign of Karen Handel is on cloud 9 this week with two significant endorsements. Despite anemic fundraising, surely these back-to-back endorsements will propel Handel into position to secure one of the top two slots on Primary Day and get her into the August runoff. Then again... maybe not.

Nathan Deal has been at the forefront fighting illegal immigration for years, yet Arizona Governor Jan Brewer endorsed Karen Handel. Why? Because Karen Handel is a female, like Brewer. While the Tea Party crowd is split between The Ox, Eric Johnson, Deal, and Ray "She's Only 16" McBerry, Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin endorsed Handel. Why? Because she's female... like Palin.

For eons conservatives have griped and grumbled over how blacks generally vote as a block for black candidates... especially black Democrats, even though many blacks are really conservative in ideology and would be much more at home in the GOP. Racial politics is wrong. If our goal is a colorblind society, then supporting a political candidate primarily on skin color is a step backward toward apartheid.

By that same standard, supporting a candidate based upon gender is just as bad. Gov. Brewer's claim to fame is her tough stance on illegal immigration, so it would make sense if she had endorsed Nathan Deal or Eric Johnson... but Karen Handel? I just don't see it.

It's the same scenario with the endorsement of pro-life, pro-family Sarah Palin. We now know that Karen Handel wrote a $75 check to the gay Log Cabin Republicans of Fulton County to reportedly pay her membership dues when she was a candidate for Fulton County Commission Chair.

Handel also voted for a Fulton County budget that included almost a half-million dollars for pro-abortion Planned Parenthood. Of note, unlike her opponents Handel couldn't wiggle out an endorsement or even a "hey she's all right" this year from Georgia Right To Life. There's also controversy over Handel's possible support of gay "domestic partner benefits" for Fulton County employees.

If you like Handel and plan to vote for her, that all right by me... just don't be swayed by the endorsements from Brewer and Palin. Gender politics is wrong... very wrong. 7-13-10
Damon Evans Must Go - The head honchos at the University of Georgia who get paid the big bucks to handle such things have no choice... UGA Athletic Director Damon Evans must lose his job over his arrest for DUI if guilty. For several years the university's athletes have generated a bumper crop of alcohol related problems, and cleaning up this mess has been a primary focus of Bulldog head football coach Mark Richt and others.

To allow Evans to stay after cracking down on students will be seen as hypocritical and will undermine the efforts of Richt and company. Evans has been touted as an up and coming star among major universities. Much has also been made of the fact that he is black in a job typically held by whites. Race and success aside, Damon Evans must go. 7-1-10
John Albers - FAIL: For Roswell area State Senate candidate John Albers, this has been a week to forget. A few days ago the AJC skewered Albers in one of its Politifact series of articles (read here) where they compare what candidates say with the facts... and Albers flunked. Seems ol' John has been padding his work history. Now John has gotten tripped up in his attempt to promote his campaign using social media marketing.

In the early days of the web, online retailers would throw their weight around to try to scrub away any negative comments made against their companies or products in various forums or on feedback pages. However, online marketers soon discovered that Internet users as a whole are pretty savvy and will quickly turn against web sites that refuse to allow the bad to get equal billing with the good.

As an example I recently posted a negative review of a product I purchased at Amazon.com. Within a few hours I received an e-mail from the owner of the company that manufactured the product. Was he upset? Did he threaten me for posting a bad review? Did he try to get Amazon to remove the post? No, no, & no.

Instead he apologized, explained why my product had problems, and thanked me for posting the review. He then offered to make things right. The result? I gained a lot of respect for this man and his company and would not hesitate to buy their products in the future.

This week John Albers, who declares himself a conservative, used Facebook to plug the fact that he had just been endorsed by the Georgia Association of Educators. Within minutes someone posted a reply questioning why a conservative would be proud of being endorsed by a far left organization. As soon as Albers saw this reply he deleted it. However other Facebook friends had already viewed the negative post and thus began to post their own replies on John's page questioning why he was trying to hide comments he didn't like.

Alber's response? He deleted those posts also and then changed the settings on his account so no one can now make comments on his page. Instead of embracing the negative feedback and using it as an opportunity to explain his positions and develop a sincere dialogue with his Facebook friends, he blew it. Albers is now viewed by many as thin skinned, defensive, and unwilling to engage his potential constituents. Candidates you have been warned. 6-30-10
Cagle & Ralston Need To Jump On This - As evidenced by primary elections nationwide so far this year, voters are peeved at incumbents regardless of party affiliation and are looking to support candidates with a little backbone. The GOP controls both chambers of the Georgia legislature and thus has "incumbent" tattooed on its forehead... not exactly the place to be in a throw the bums out year. Thankfully our illustrious Governor Sonny Perdue may have just handed Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and House Speaker David Ralston the perfect platform with which to harness that Tea Party fervor and brush back against those voters who feel the legislature hasn't done a lot lately, and who see Cagle in particular as Casper Milquetoast.

Cagle and Ralston need to call a special session of the General Assembly right now... as soon as legally possible. SB 1 passed both House and Senate without a single "no" vote, but in his best "I used to be a Democrat but am now a Republican" line of reasoning, Perdue vetoed the bill Tuesday even though inundated with calls and e-mails from the public in support of this legislation that would have implemented "Zero Based Budgeting" for all of Georgia's state government agencies, departments, and programs.

If ever an issue was tailor made to garner support from the Tea Party crowd, rank & file Republicans, and those just generally in favor of clean efficient state government... a special session to overturn Perdue's veto of SB 1 is it. I know a few GOP incumbents with primary opponents or serious November Democrat challengers who would love to have the chance to beat their chests and say "I stood up to the governor and voted to make Georgia's state government accountable to the people!"

I bet the guys at Rosetta, Landmark, Stoneridge and the other campaign consulting groups could have a field day cranking out direct mail pieces showing their clients as strong economic warriors protecting Georgia taxpayers from annual budget creep.

Cagle and Ralston should keep it simple and not deal with anything else... just a quick special session for the sole purpose pf overriding SB1. Hey Casey, this might prompt some folks like me to cast a vote your way in November instead of using it a protest vote for the Libertarian. Ask Saxby what he thinks. 6-9-10

An Archduke Ferdinand Moment? After decades of bloodbaths in the Middle East, this current controversy involving Israeli troops seizing so-called relief ships on their way to the Gaza strip probably seems pretty tame. I beg to differ. Numerous political and military maneuverings in the area over the last few months have left the entire region on the edge of something big... and this ship seizure issue may have just been the Middle East's Archduke Franz Ferdinand moment.

For the history challenged out there, Archduke Ferdinand was the presumptive heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. His assassination in June 1914 sparked a chain of events that triggered World War I just two months later.

For far too long Israelis have lived under the constant threat of suicide bombings and rocket attacks launched from Palestinian controlled areas of Gaza. In order to keep weapons away from Palestinian terrorist groups such as Hamas and Fattah, Israel and Egypt have blockaded the Gaza coastline for several years. Any humanitarian aide headed for Gaza must come through Israel, where it is inspected. Israel had no choice but to stop these ships.

The ragtag flotilla headed to Gaza last week was sent for one purpose only... to cause a confrontation that could be leveraged to garner worldwide condemnation of Israel. Never mind that there were Hamas agents on those ships. Forget the fact that Israeli troops were only armed with paintball guns. It doesn't matter that the Israeli soldiers were attacked with chains, iron bars, and handguns. Who cares if there is video backing up Israel's claims that their personnel were the ones attacked and that the relief ships' passengers were singing hardline anti-Israel songs just before the boarding took place.

Nope, the truth didn't matter as the world's media quickly make it look like Israel had done something evil, and soon governments around the globe joined in with their own condemnations of the Jewish state. And what about our own President Obama and his administration? Nothing but a prolonged tap dance around the issue.

Since his inauguration, President Obama has embarked on what some have called his "worldwide apology tour", where he blames all of the world's ills on the USA. These moves, along with his continued outreach to Muslim nations while thumbing his nose at Israel have emboldened Muslim nations to become more aggressive toward Israel.

Here we have Iran ever closer to developing nuclear weapons that it publicly states will be used to wipe Israel off of the map. Iran and North Korea have both increased shipments of long-range rockets and other military technology to Syria. Meanwhile Syria and Iran are working together to move significant quantities of sophisticated weaponry into the hands of Hezbollah militias in Lebanon. It is estimated that Hezbollah now has 40,000 rockets pointed at Israel.

That brings us to Turkey. Though a Muslim nation, Turkey has been a longtime friend of Israel and a stabilizing force in the Middle East. While the Turkish military has been rightly viewed as more secular and stable, the government itself has in recent years come under the control of politicians with a more radical Islamic philosophy. The Turkish relationship with Israel has become increasingly strained over the last few months.

The flotilla at the center of this week's controversy was organized by a prominent Turkish leader, and some of the ships were sailing under the Turkish flag. There is even talk of more aid ships heading toward Gaza that would be escorted by Turkish warships. My hope is that the cooler heads inside of Turkey's military command will prevail and this brewing confrontation can be avoided.

The bottom line is there are numerous potential flashpoints in the Middle East and any one could set in motion a chain of events that could change the world as we know it. Whether this ship boarding episode becomes an Archduke Ferdinand moment is yet to be seen, but the potential exists. As the Bible instructs us, pray for the peace of Jerusalem. 6-2-10